1702 bitrate x264 vs 3000 xvid

For same file size and bit rate I would expect x264 to be better, but what about drastically different bit rates and file sizes?

Let's say you made a number of 44 minute 720p videos

700M x264, 2pass, L4.0
1702 video bitrate
384 kb/s audio

1.1G xvid with 3000 video bitrate
640 kb/s audio

Would you expect the x264 video to be superior in this scenario? And how different would you expect them to be quality wise?

When I look at them they seem the same to be but 1702 seems very low, could it compete with xvid at this bitrate?